PDI-P SUPPORT DROPS SHARPLY;

DEMOCRAT PARTY AND PROSPEROUS JUSTICE PARTY MAKE SIGNIFICANT GAINS

 

Jakarta; April 6, 2004

Embargoed until 14:15 West Indonesia Time

 

 

            President Megawati Soekarnoputri’s ruling Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle (PDI-P) has seen a sharp drop in support from Indonesian voters in yesterday’s legislative elections.  Nonetheless, this has not resulted in a comeback for the former ruling party Golkar.  Though Golkar has secured the single largest block of votes, this is the same level of support it received in 1999.  Instead, two small parties – the Democrat Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) – have made significant gains.  In addition, support for former President Abdurrahman Wahid’s National Awakening Party (PKB) has not drastically decreased. 

 

These are the conclusions drawn from a national Quick Count conducted by the Jakarta-based Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES) as part of the Jurdil Pemilu 2004 election monitoring coalition.  Based on a statistically-based national sample of polling stations from all 32 provinces, the projections of popular vote results for the April 5 elections for the national legislature (DPR) are as follows: Golkar 22.7%, PDI-P 18.8%, PKB 10.7%, PPP 8.1%, Democrat Party 7.3%, PKS 7.2%, PAN 6.4% and PBB 2.6%.  The other 16 parties each received less than 2.5% of the national vote. 

 

These projections are based on an actual observation of the vote count in a statistically significant sample of 1,416 polling stations – representing the votes of 289,052 voters – distributed throughout Indonesia’s 32 provinces.  The Quick Count conducted by LP3ES uses a globally-accepted methodology that has proven successful in scores of elections around the world over the past two decades.  The expected margin of error for these projections is no greater than plus or minus one percentage point at a 95% confidence level. 

 

It is important to note that these Quick Count projections cannot be used to predict the DPR seats won by each party in Indonesia’s 69 electoral districts.  The electoral system used for these elections may produce a somewhat different breakdown of seats compared to the national vote totals. 

 

Jurdil Pemilu 2004 is a coalition of Indonesian Rector’s Forum, a national network of university rectors; LP3ES, a Jakarta-based research institute; Civil Society Alliance for Democracy (YAPPIKA), an NGO that monitored the elections in Aceh; and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), a Washington, DC-based international organization that supports democracy around the world. 

 

 

For further information, please contact:

Muhammad Husain

LP3ES

Jl. S. Parman No. 81, Jakarta

021-567-4211, 0812-924-9394

husain@lp3es.or.id

 

 

            Table: National Estimate of Party Vote

 

Party

National Vote Prediction*

Golkar

22,7%

PDIP

18,8%

PKB

10,7%

PPP

8,1%

Partai Demokrat

7,3%

PKS

7,2%

PAN

6,4%

PBB

2,6%

PKPB

2,1%

PBR

1,9%

PDS

1,8%

PKPI

1,2%

PPDK

1,2%

PNBK

1,0%

PPNUI

0,8%

Partai Merdeka

0,8%

PNI Marhaenisme

0,8%

Partai PP

0,8%

Partai Pelopor

0,7%

PPD

0,7%

Partai PDI

0,7%

PSI

0,6%

Partai PIB

0,5%

PBSD

0,5%

            * Data as of 12:37 West Indonesia Time, 6 April 2004