By Geneive Abdo
Middle East analyst, The Century Foundation
Four months before the Iranian presidential election, competing candidates and factions are already entering the race with great drama and fanfare. Unlike other recent elections, when Iranian voters were apathetic, thinking their vote could make little difference, the upcoming June 12 election is generating widespread public interest and debate. For many Iranians, the election will serve as a referendum on the tenure of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the policies of his conservative administration.
This election is also critical for Iran’s relations with the West. Recent overtures by U.S. President Barack Obama have made Iran’s leadership and the electorate optimistic that, even if diplomatic relations are not fully restored, at least the relationship with the United States will be less icy. Obama’s promise to talk to Iran without pre-conditions has left the political establishment aware that the selection of the next president will help shape the immediate future of U.S./Iranian relations.
With the stakes so high, familiar as well as new faces are entering the contest. There is no official campaign season in Iran, so contenders tend to announce their candidacies haphazardly, often months apart. Some potential candidates sat on the sidelines, waiting to see if Ahmadinejad would run for a second term. In late January, Ahmadinejad entered the race, signaling that he felt he had the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At times, Khamenei has vacillated in his support for Ahmadinejad. He has openly criticized the dire state of the economy, which Ahmadinejd pledged to improve during his 2005 presidential campaign. Yet, despite harsh criticism from fellow conservatives and reformers alike, Khamenei has given Ahmadinejad the go ahead. Now, Ahmadinejad’s bid for another term is prompting his rivals, among them Iran’s struggling reformers, to put forth their strongest contenders.
No one is better placed to compete against Ahmadinejad than Seyyed Mohammed Khatami. There were months of speculation whether Khatami, the two-term former president, would risk another campaign. When he left office in 2005, Khatami’s initial popularity had declined significantly. Iranians believed he never delivered on the grand promises he made, including creating a free press, establishing the rule of law, and bringing Iran out of world isolation. But after four years of Ahmadinejad, the Iranian electorate is more pragmatic. Many have lowered their expectations of fundamental change in the political system and are willing to accept Khatami, despite the limitations his presidency might face. On February 8, Khatami finally announced that he would run to serve the desires of his supporters, positioning himself as the reluctant leader and champion of the reformists. His candidacy is already invigorating the political system, which is precisely the goal of Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Khamenei needs Khatami now just as he needed him in 1997. Khatami’s participation lends respectability to the election by offering a competitive and compelling race. He also is a reminder to the West that Iran’s political system is not monolithic, but rather consists of competing political and theological structures. After four years of an Ahmadinejad presidency, which reaffirmed the stereotype of Iran as an extremist, anti-American, anti-Israeli state, Khamenei knows he needs to present Iran’s gentler face.
While the Iranian regime wants to convince the world – and its own citizens – that its elections are free and fair, it would be a stretch to characterize them as such. The electoral process does not begin with the candidates’ announcements nor does it end at the ballot box. Whether a candidate throws his hat into the ring and whether he actually wins largely depends upon Ayatollah Khamenei and the Council of Guardians, a body of six clerics and six jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader. The Guardians will review the candidates who have nominated themselves to run for president and then approve a final slate of contenders. By law, the Guardians are required to state specific criteria for any candidate disqualifications, but more often than not ambiguous reasons are given, such as “lack of dedication to the Islamic republic.” Supreme Leader Khamenei has great influence over the decisions of the Guardian Council. Khatami previously stated that he would not run unless he had a guarantee that the Guardian Council would approve his candidacy; his declared candidacy indicates he has received the go ahead from Khamenei.
Pictured above: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad (left), and former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami.
