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By Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor, Iran Election Bulletin

Dear Reader,

Earlier today Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Discernment Council, led Friday prayers for the first time since the June 12 elections.  Rafsanjani has become increasingly aligned with Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who claims to be the rightful victor in the presidential elections, and has appeared to be leading a faction within elite circles challenging Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Grassroots activists and the ruling establishment alike listened closely to his remarks to discern how far he would go in criticizing the regime.

The tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Iranians who gathered at the prayer service and outside Tehran University heard Rafsanjani, rather than directly challenge Khamenei, strike a middle ground.  He became the first senior Iranian leader to call the post-election unrest a “crisis” for the Iranian Republic and spoke directly to the need  to resolve public doubts about the election outcome.  Invoking the founding principles of Ayatollah Khomeini, Rafsanjani criticized the violence against protestors, called for the release of those arrested and urged the relaxation of press restrictions imposed post-election.  He further invoked the Islamic and republican foundations of Iran in an implicit jab at those who are accused of pushing Iran toward dictatorship.

However, Rafsanjani’s frequent references to the revolution and founding of the Islamic republic indicate that, as an establishment figure himself, he is not likely to support the sweeping changes the grassroots opposition may want.  Rather, he advocated resolving political disputes within the confines of the existing system and called for consensus and unity among the people and the government.  As predicted by analysts in past weeks, Rafsanjani seemed to be angling for the position of kingmaker – able to adjudicate disputes and rise above politics – as he spoke in support of protestors while at the same time not pushing too hard on the regime.  Nowhere in his speech did he propose concrete solutions for resolving the crisis.

It is too early to know what grassroots activists will take from Rafsanjani’s speech.  Initial reactions indicate that some were heartened by his statements in support of protestors and understood the motivation for his cautious critiques.  Others were clearly disappointed by his measured words and reticence to go further in supporting reformists.

What is clear is that the basij and security forces did not heed the calls to end their violence.  Police used tear gas and batons against protestors during and after the Friday sermon.  In one well publicized event, prominent human rights activist Shadi Sadr was beaten and arrested on her way to hear the sermon.  The ongoing violence coincides with further moves to restrict public access to information through a new media law that increases limits on criticism of state affairs.

This issue of the Iran Election Bulletin explores the state of human rights in Iran following the elections, what the crackdowns may mean for the future of a grassroots movement and how foreign policy stances around the world may contribute toward improving or worsening human rights.  As always, I welcome your feedback and comments.

Sincerely,
Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor

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Published on July 17, 2009