Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Challenges Now and Beyond the July 30 Elections
After armed conflict that began in the late 1990s and has resulted in over four million deaths, the DRC is inching closer towards democratic elections and the installation of a more legitimate government. A new constitution was approved by approximately 85 percent of the electorate in a national referendum that took place in December 2005. Over 25 million citizens registered to vote and more than 15 million voters cast ballots in the constitutional referendum. The country's first set of multiparty presidential and legislative elections since 1960 are now scheduled for July 30, 2006.
Significant political and logistical challenges threaten to undermine the success of the electoral process and the legitimacy of the new government.
Immediate (Short Term) Challenges: Political Challenges:
The Sun City Accords that brought an end to Congo's civil war established June 30, 2005 as the end of the transition period. However, delays in the enactment of the electoral law and the candidate registration process led to a one-year postponement of elections from July 2005 until July 30, 2006. This created a political crisis between those Congolese party leaders who claim that the Commission Electorale Indépendante (Independent Electoral Commission, CEI) overstepped its authority by scheduling elections after the June 30 deadline and others who argue that the new constitution empowers the country's transitional institutions to remain in place until a new government is elected. This conflict has led to a boycott of the upcoming elections by some political parties, notably the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UPDS).
Non-Participating Parties:
With the UDPS -- the country's erstwhile lead opposition party -- boycotting the electoral process, many Congolese and international analysts are concerned about the actions of potential spoilers in the immediate post-election period. Despite extensive diplomatic efforts by the international community to bring the UDPS back into the political process, the party has maintained its boycott. UDPS supporters could disrupt the elections; alternatively, non participation could undermine the credibility of the process and spur unrest in the post-election period. Other minor parties (19 in total) have threatened to suspend their involvement in the election if complaints about voter rolls and voter cards are not addressed immediately by the CEI.
Security Challenges:
Despite the presence of a large United Nations peacekeeping force (called MONUC), sporadic fighting continues in parts of Eastern Congo. Armed groups from neighboring countries (Rwanda, Uganda and Sudan) are suspected to be hiding out in the vast tropical forests of that region of the DRC. MONUC forces appear to be thinly spread, although additional European troops have been deployed to the country to secure the elections. Sporadic skirmishes in the Eastern Congo highlight deep-seated competing interests among different ethnic groups in the DRC. Some militia leaders believe that they benefit more from armed conflict than from participating in the country's new democratic institutions. The Congolese military is yet to be properly trained and fully integrated.
Logistical Challenges:
The country's Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), faces enormous logistical challenges organizing elections in a country the size of Western Europe. The few paved roads, minimal communications infrastructure and an illiteracy rate approaching 50 percent make the task even more daunting. The proportional open list system established by the country's new electoral law for the legislative elections poses special challenges as voters may find difficulties deciphering ballots with names of dozens of candidates for a single legislative seat. Long delays are expected at the country's 52,000 polling stations.
Post-Election (medium to longer term) Challenges: Potential Spoilers:
Many Congolese and independent observers worry that parties boycotting the elections and those that perform less than their leaders expect in national and provincial elections, could become more obstructionists and resort to violence in the post election period. These concerns are heightened by the fact that some of the most prominent political parties were until recently armed groups and rebel movements.
Legitimacy gap:
Despite the country's enormous wealth of natural resources, for decades Congolese have not experienced an improvement in their wellbeing. There is a pervasive sense of resignation and cynicism about government that is not likely to change any time soon. Illiteracy, poor communication and transportation infrastructure and the absence of proper channels of participatory governance inhibit citizen's ability to participate directly in the democratic process. Rampant corruption at all levels inhibits the government's ability to fulfill its basic responsibilities and generates cynicism that would be reinforced if the elections are not seen as credible and transparent by a sizeable percentage of the population.
Weak Institutions:
Effective democratic institutions such as political parties, the National Assembly and civil society associations are essential. Reducing the threat of spoilers, increasing the government's legitimacy and creating opportunities for opposition parties, the media and civil society associations to participate meaningfully in decision making processes would strengthen the country's nascent institutions. The DRC's new democratic institutions would be limited in their capacity to fulfill their roles. For example, many members of the new 500 member National Assembly would be first time legislators. Also, the open list electoral system is likely to produce a severely fractious legislature given the country's 250 political parties and hundreds of independent candidacies.
Oversight, Checks and Balances:
An effective legislature would have a vital role to play in curbing corruption and government abuses in the DRC. Decades of autocratic rule and armed conflict have led the majority of Congolese citizens to lower their expectations of government. Members of the newly elected legislature, many of whom have no legislative experience, will face significant challenges both in terms of institutional management and the ability to legislate, represent citizen interests and exercise proper oversight of the Executive branch. The transitional legislature was fractionalized and poorly funded, and the incoming National Assembly will face similar challenges if steps are not taken to guarantee it's independence and functionality.
Prospects for stability in Eastern DRC:
The ability of the newly elected leadership to affect positive change in the tumultuous eastern part of the country, far removed from Kinshasa, is contingent on effective representative bodies such as the National Assembly and a professional military and police force. For years, Eastern Congo has been wracked by violence, exacerbated by the presence of militias aided, directly and indirectly, by neighboring states and governments. Unfortunately, instability in Eastern Congo also impacts developments in the neighboring countries of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Sudan.
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