Watch "New Frontiers in Polling."

Finding out what citizens think and how they will act is a key element in shaping government policies and campaign strategies. The panel discussion, “New Frontiers in Polling,” brought journalists together with Democratic and Republican pollsters to discuss opinion research from the presidential election, challenges to the industry and new directions for polling.

Stan Greenberg, CEO of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, recently published It’s the Middle Class, Stupid, focused on the challenges politicians face in responding to the problems of the 60 percent of Americans who identify as middle class. According to Greenberg, classic middle class values of hard work and leaving your children better off are at the heart of the American dream, but half of Americans no longer believe this is possible. From three years of focus group research leading up to the publication of the book, Greenberg found that voters believe that they were in trouble before the economic crisis, and things have continued to get worse.

Whit Ayres, the president of North Star Opinion Research, agreed, sharing stories from focus groups his company has conducted. “You have to appreciate the extent to which American voters are scared," he said.  "They’ve lost their job, family members have lost their job, or they are scared of losing their jobs.” People react differently when they’re scared, which he expects will impact this election. Ayers’ compared the presidential race to choosing a surgeon for your child. No one would ask “which surgeon would you rather have a beer with?” Instead they'd be focused purely on competency. Peter Hart, chairman of Hart Research Associates, disagreed. “We care about the human being who is going to be president," he said. 

Jon Cohen, Washington Post, further explained the latest poll numbers. Obama, he said, is perceived as bad on economic stewardship, but people don’t have a lot of confidence in Romney, either. Meanwhile, Obama's likeability numbers are more than 30 points above Romney's - the same advantage, he observed, as Clinton had in ‘96.

The panel then pivoted to recent changes in polling. The biggest problem is the rise of cell phones. Ayres observed that under U.S. law, automated computer polls can’t call cell phones and many voters no longer have a landline. Hart saw instantaneous polling data as the most significant change. Back in 1964, it took a week to do an “instant” poll; now they happen immediately. However, faster is not always better, he warned. Opinions shift over time, and measuring too quickly can give false impressions. 

Kay quoted New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at the Republican convention in Tampa, saying “A great leader is someone who leads polls, not follows them.” “How often do leaders actually act that way?” she asked the panel. Ayres said the poll itself doesn’t always make the call for a politician, but it does let them understand the costs. Hart shared a story about Jim Hunt, former governor of North Carolina, who wanted to raise the gas tax to pay for road improvements. Gov. Hunt knew the decision would be unpopular, and he went to Hart for better ways to explain it to the public. Nevertheless, he lost the next election.

Hart pointed to one drawback of the recent increase in polling. “We lose genuineness,” he said. Although overall it is good for democracy to have politicians that know and care about what their constituents think, it can be harder for voters to know their government representatives.

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