Peter Hart, chairman of Hart Research Associates, opened ILF’s “New Frontiers in Polling” with a look at whether economic indicators or candidate personalities will determine the 2012 election.
After getting the audience on their feet with an impromptu four-question poll, Hart attempted to answer that question with a look at recent polling and focus group research. On the polling side, he showed data that Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction by a 2:1 margin. Strong economic confidence has historically lead to incumbent re-elections, and Obama is well below the confidence level that should lead to his re-election. If people go with their gut, they will vote for Romney.
Hart then turned to focus group research. In focus groups, a small number of individuals are brought together for an intimate discussion about their feelings on key political issues. He showed clips of a focus group from Wisconsin to demonstrate the kinds of questions and discussions he uses to get to those feelings. Questions like “who would you like to go to a baseball game with?” and “if Obama or Romney were your neighbor, what would they be like?” are designed to get a sense of the candidates’ likeability. Obama, Hart found, is perceived as much more likeable, and Hart argued that this made him more likely to be elected than the economic indicators would otherwise indicate. If people go with their heart, Obama will win a second term.