By Geneive Abdo
Iran Analyst, The Century Foundation
In Iran’s dynamic political landscape, few issues unite conservative and reformist leaders, and even fewer topics inspire broad-based public enthusiasm. But Iran’s nuclear program has proven to unify a country that is habitually – some might say, congenitally – divided.
As part of National Nuclear Day celebrations, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated on April 9 the nation’s new manufacturing plant to produce nuclear fuel near Isfahan. He boasted that new, more advanced machines had been tested for enriching uranium – in defiance of worldwide alarm that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb. Echoing Ahmadinejad’s proud claims, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization was more specific, saying enrichment capacity was up to 7,000 centrifuges – a increase of 1,000 from February.
Other presidential contenders from across the political spectrum, determined not to be upstaged by Ahmadinejad, championed the apparent advancement in nuclear technology and vowed that Iran would not surrender to worldwide pressure to suspend uranium enrichment. Speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani – himself a former nuclear negotiator and a rival to Ahmadinejad – joined the national grandstanding about Iran’s right to a nuclear program, vowing that parliament would play a major role in Iran’s future nuclear negotiations with Europe and the United States to safeguard the nation’s “inalienable nuclear rights.”
Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist contender for president, also addressed the nuclear issue during his first campaign press conference, saying that Iran “can’t hold back in continuing nuclear advancement.” While at times Mousavi has said that nuclear technology should be used for peaceful purposes, he clearly reiterated in an interview in the Financial Times on April 13 that “no one in Iran would accept suspension [of uranium enrichment].”
The most important words in his statement were “no one.” Contrary to the perception that only Iran’s hard-liners aspire to become a nuclear power, Iran’s leaders, ranging from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to former reformist president Mohammed Khatami, support the country’s right to a nuclear program.
Iran’s nuclear program began under Mohammed Reza Shah in 1974, with the support of the United States, under the belief that oil was a resource that would eventually be exhausted. The current international consensus that Iran does not need nuclear energy because it is the world’s fourth largest oil producer emerged only after 1979.
Since the 1979 revolution, there has been a stark contrast between Iran’s perception of itself and how the international community views the Islamic republic – particularly in regard to the nuclear issue. While a major world power in oil production, Iran has had trouble for years meeting its own domestic energy needs, in part because of growing population, inefficient distribution networks and a shortage of oil refining capacity that forces it to import petroleum products even as it exports large amounts of crude. Much of the world views Iran as a menacing power on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, but Iran’s leaders worry that their country is undeveloped economically and technologically and needs to demonstrate its advances in nuclear technology. After inspecting the construction of supersonic wind tunnels at the aerodynamic research center at Imam Hossein Military Academy on April 14, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reflected this concern, saying that “in spite of the fast pace of scientific progress in the country, there is a long way to go before we can achieve an appropriate position and make up for the backwardness we have suffered.”
The official position of the Iranian government is that it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. Yet, there is a prevailing view in the country that nuclear technology should not only be developed for alternative sources of energy, but also to develop nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence in the region, which is also home to nuclear-armed Israel, Iran’s staunch enemy. In addition, Iran feels threatened by the United States’ military presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan. Enriching uranium can produce fuel for a nuclear power plant, or if purified, can provide material for an atomic bomb.
Although International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors have never found solid evidence linking Iran’s uranium enrichment to weapons development, Iran has refused to be transparent about its program and this has raised international concern. The IAEA has repeatedly found that Iran has failed to report details of its nuclear facilities. In 2003, succumbing to international pressure, Iran temporarily suspended its enrichment program and signed an Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) giving the IAEA greater access to its nuclear sites. Under the NPT, signatories have the “inalienable right” to produce fuel for civilian purposes.
For Iranians, advanced nuclear technology is a matter of national pride and Iran’s sovereign rights, which Iranians believe were denied them for many decades, first under British and Soviet influence and later by the United States in 1953 through a CIA-backed overthrow of an elected government that returned the Shah to power. Further, Iran’s leadership and the public firmly believe that a double-standard exists in the international community: although countries such as Israel and Pakistan are advanced nuclear powers, Iran, by virtue of being an Islamic republic, should be forbidden from having a nuclear program. During an April 4 conversation with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Ayatollah Khamenei blasted what he called continuous worldwide “propaganda” against Iran’s nuclear program and portrayed Iran as an underdog. “The arrogant powers’ opposition is again indicative of the fact that the achievements made by the Islamic republic in developing nuclear technology are an important step towards strengthening the righteous front in the world,” he said.
The more worldwide condemnation Iran receives the more the country’s leaders believe they are justified in developing a nuclear program. This position gives them rare support within Iranian society, which often is at odds with the leadership over social issues.
Some Western governments believe that Iran’s political leaders, in fact, might exaggerate its progress in nuclear technology to have greater influence in the Middle East and to boost its negotiating position with Western governments. Following Ahmadinejad’s inauguration of the fuel manufacturing plant in Isfahan, Kayhan newspaper highlighted the international attention Iran’s nuclear program was receiving on French television as well as in the German, Japanese and British media.
Despite optimism in Washington and in European capitals that the election of a reformist president on June 12 might bring a change in Iran’s nuclear policy, overwhelming evidence points to the contrary. Not only is there little or no difference in the positions among reformers and conservatives on this issue, but Supreme Leader Khamenei remains as committed as ever to advancing Iran’s nuclear program.
Even if the U.S. government engages in talks with Iran – in the coming weeks or after Iran’s presidential election – it is unlikely the Islamic republic will change what has been a consistent stance for many decades.
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Published on April 24, 2009
