NDI January 2023 Poll: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Ukraine's Democratic Transition

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

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Approaching the one year anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked and illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainians remain committed to Ukrainian victory and optimistic about the country’s future despite significant hardships. According to NDI polling, 89 percent of Ukrainians report being optimistic about Ukraine’s future, primarily citing Ukraine’s victory as the reason for their optimism. 

This number has remained consistent throughout the war as Ukrainians remain steadfast despite the prolonged hardships Ukrainians continue to face. Since Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, 92 percent of Ukrainians report constant, frequent, or occasional power outages at home, and 37 percent report that they have lost a friend or family member in the war. 

Recognizing the role Western support for Ukraine has played in the war so far, Ukrainians have a very positive assessment of the role their allies have in determining Ukraine’s future, with 72 percent giving a positive assessment of the United States, 79 percent positive for the United Kingdom, and 73 percent positive for both Canada and the European Union. Additionally, since the start of the war public support among Ukrainians for EU and NATO membership has risen significantly. What was once a substantive debate now has near unanimity, with 92 percent supporting EU membership and 86 percent supporting NATO membership. 

Ukrainians remain resolute and united, and it is now clear that Russia’s strategy to divide the country, undermine its resilience, and erode its Western ties has proven a failure. The findings of NDI’s third round of wartime polling clearly demonstrate Ukrainians’ faith in their victory and resolve in the face of immense hardship remains strong as Russia’s war, and targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure continues. 

The survey was designed and deployed by the National Democratic Institute in Ukraine. The fieldwork was conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology during January 4 - 16, 2023, via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) method with 2,508 completed interviews. The survey is representative only of the adult population who use mobile phones with Ukrainian numbers. Areas that were outside the control of the Ukrainian government before February 24, 2022, were excluded. The average margin of error for the national sample is +/- 2.2%. The research is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Sweden, UK Aid and Global Affairs Canada.

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